Predicting the future
预测未来
What was the 'future' electronic development that Leon Bagrit wasn't able to foresee?
Leon Bagrit无法预见的"未来"电子发展是什么？
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult.
预测未来是出了名的困难。
Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example,
比如，在20世纪70年代中期，谁能想到呢？,
that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets?
到20世纪末，电脑在人们的家中会像电视机一样普遍吗？
In the 1970s, computers were common enough,
在20世纪70年代，计算机已经足够普遍了,
but only in big business, government departments and large organizations.
但只有在大企业，政府部门和大型组织。
These were the so-called mainframe machines.
这些就是所谓的大型机。
Mainframe computers were very large indeed often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms,
大型计算机非常大，确实经常占据整个空调房间,
employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software.
雇用全职技术人员并运行专门编写的软件.
Though these large machines still exist,
虽然这些大型机器仍然存在,
many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
它们的许多功能已被小型功能强大的个人电脑（通常称为Pc）接管。
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA.
在1975中，一种名为Altair的原始机器在美国推出。
It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future.
它可以被恰当地描述为第一台"家用电脑"，它为未来指明了道路。
This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple.
在20世纪70年代末，一台名为苹果的机器紧随其后。
In the early 1980s, the computer giant,
20世纪80年代初，计算机巨头,
IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer.
IBM生产了世界上第一台个人电脑。
This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS,
这是在一个名为DOS的"操作系统"上运行的,
produced by a then small company named Microsoft.
由当时的一家名为微软的小公司生产。
The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied.
IBM个人电脑被广泛复制。
From those humble beginnings,
从那些卑微的开始,
we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
我们已经看到用户友好的家用电脑和多媒体机器的发展，这是今天普遍使用的。
Considering how recent these developments are,
考虑到这些发展是最近的,
it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit
更令人瞩目的是，早在20世纪60年代，一位英国人莱昂*巴格里特
was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today.
能够预测我们今天所知道的计算机的一些用途。
Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world',
Bagrit驳斥了计算机将学会为自己"思考"并将"统治世界"的想法,
which people liked to believe in those days.
那些日子里人们喜欢相信的。
Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand,
巴格里特预见到了一个计算机足够小到可以握在手上的时代,
when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams
当他们能够提供有关交通堵塞的信息时
and suggesting alterative routes,
并建议改变路线,
when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses,
当它们被用于医院帮助医生诊断疾病时,
when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work.
当他们将减轻办公室工作人员和会计的沉闷，重复的文书工作。
All these computer uses have become commonplace.
所有这些计算机的使用已经变得司空见惯。
Of course, Leon Bagrit couldn't possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet,
当然，Leon Bagrit不可能预见到互联网的发展,
the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world
全球系统，使我们能够与世界任何地方的任何人即时沟通
by using computers linked to telephone networks.
通过使用连接到电话网络的计算机。
Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject,
他也无法预见我们如何利用互联网获得关于每个已知主题的信息,
so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to.
所以我们可以在家里的屏幕上阅读，甚至可以打印出来。
Computers have become smaller and smaller,
电脑变得越来越小,
more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper.
越来越强大，越来越便宜。
This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable.
这就是Leon Bagrit的预测特别显着的原因。
If he, or someone like him, were alive today,
如果他，或者像他这样的人，今天还活着,
he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.
他也许能告诉我们未来五十年会发生什么。
